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Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

61 replies on 5 pages. Most recent reply: Jan 4, 2007 10:47 AM by John C. Walker

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Bill Venners

Posts: 2284
Nickname: bv
Registered: Jan, 2002

Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 29, 2006 4:27 PM

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What are your predictions for the next big thing in software development? What should we watch out for in 2007?

Joao Pedrosa

Posts: 114
Nickname: dewd
Registered: Dec, 2005

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 29, 2006 7:12 PM

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Ruby version 2.0 probably will have a beta in 2007, and it will be mostly compatible with the previous versions. I mean, it's Ruby with a Virtual Machine and backwards compatibility, what could be better? :-) Maybe when it's stable and folks transition successfully to it, which might happen only in 2008.

We still need a public Ruby for the .NET platform as well. It's not an impossible task to get it going, although it would be better if it was well supported on the MS's CLR and the Mono's base. Although the "old" Ruby will probably still be better for big deployments. In 2007 we should have such an option! (/me crosses fingers).

With Vista's release, Java will finally face some strong competition, which will not be too good for it on the Windows platform. It means most newbies probably will choose some other language than Java when they are given the choice. The problem will mostly be that for the time being many folks will have to support Java and .NET applications simultaneously, which will not be that fun. Java's growth probably will come to a halt in 2007, if it hasn't already.

Firefox probably will become a dependency of many programs that depend on some heavy JavaScript/Graphics interface. It probably will be the main competition to the WPF alternative or something. Bonus if you can support other browsers besides Firefox, which probably will be impossible without a popular and very good library. I haven't adopted one of those libraries yet, and I hope when I choose one, it will be the right one. :-)

In the proprietary front, Adobe might come up with some surprising technologies to provide better alternatives to the ones Microsoft is presenting with Windows Vista. Like, the "new PDF", probably better "Flash tools", etc. The problem is that the competition will be a tough one for them, because they will compete with "Gratis" in so many fronts. :-)

For the most part, I believe the "buzz" will be with Windows Vista for all the 2007 year, even though for big developments it will help the programmers only somewhat in the short term. The Ruby and Rails "buzz" will fade a little in 2007, and probably some other framework in Ruby might provide a better alternative to Rails in 2007. Who knows?

Kay Schluehr

Posts: 302
Nickname: schluehk
Registered: Jan, 2005

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 30, 2006 11:45 AM

Reply

> In the proprietary front, Adobe might come up with some
> surprising technologies to provide better alternatives to
> the ones Microsoft is presenting with Windows Vista. Like,
> the "new PDF", probably better "Flash tools", etc. The
> problem is that the competition will be a tough one for
> them, because they will compete with "Gratis" in so many
> fronts. :-)

Apollo?

http://labs.adobe.com/wiki/index.php/Apollo#General_Apollo_Information

Posts: 55
Nickname: lazydaze
Registered: Feb, 2006

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 30, 2006 12:54 PM

Reply

> With Vista's release, Java will finally face some strong
> competition, which will not be too good for it on the
> Windows platform. It means most newbies probably will
> choose some other language than Java when they are given
> the choice. The problem will mostly be that for the time

In what way is Vista competition to Java? Are there many Java apps out there that are developed specifically for the Windows platform in the first place?

Joao Pedrosa

Posts: 114
Nickname: dewd
Registered: Dec, 2005

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 30, 2006 3:19 PM

Reply

"In what way is Vista competition to Java? Are there many Java apps out there that are developed specifically for the Windows platform in the first place?"

I think any Java development project that is developed on Windows and is not even tested in other platforms tends to be "developed specifically for the Windows platform."

Even though frameworks abstract most of the platform away, that is.

I don't know what the real numbers are, but Windows being the platform of choice of corporations and ordinary users, I think a lot of Java development is largely skewed towards Windows, specifically. Among many things, it seems that IIS holds its own against Apache in its platform, for instance. How many Java applications work behind IIS? How many Swing applications are developed/tested/used only in Windows?

Posts: 55
Nickname: lazydaze
Registered: Feb, 2006

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 30, 2006 5:37 PM

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I think it'll take more than a shiny new Windows OS to persuade companies who have invested so much in Java, and are used to the luxury of being able to run it on any OS, to ditch Java so quickly. That's a lot of investment in libraries, skills, and OS-independence they'll be throwing away. Maybe not so much for desktop apps, but certainly for server apps.

I agree that Java is getting stuck, and I hope that Sun make a bold move in the direction of an agile language. At the moment they seem to be either tinkering or sitting back waiting for something to happen. At the same time there's a lot of effort split between evolving Java and developing a myriad of other languages. My suggestion is that Sun announces the development of a new language called Guava, distilled from the best aspects of JRuby/Groovy/Scala/etc, to sit on a new revitalized and backward compatible JVM, and put as much force behind it as they did with Java. That way, I won't need to be hedging my bets for the next 2 years as to whether to invest in Groovy or Scala or battle on with Java.

Tom Ayerst

Posts: 7
Nickname: tomayerst
Registered: Feb, 2003

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 30, 2006 5:42 PM

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I don't know about most organisations but in the data centres of the Financial services world Linux on commodity hardware is gain share fast. In this world Java is dominant and expanding. The performance improvements of Java SE 6 are only going to accelerate this trend.

The MS CLR will gain a lot of traction on Windows but real world developers have demonstrated that Server side Java truly is WORA and the advantage of deploying the cheapest Hardware/OS combination is compelling. Furthermore Java development tools for server side components are still better than their MS CLR equivalents.

While MS CLR will make headway on Windows the JVM is not dead yet, and is about to enter a period of fast expansion.

Berco Beute

Posts: 72
Nickname: berco
Registered: Jan, 2002

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 2:30 AM

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My guess which headlines 2007 will bring us

- Python: The new services paradigm is all about tying things together, which is where Python shines. And you get power and simplicity as a bonus.
- 3000 alpha/beta: Break a little, gain a lot.
- Django: v1.0
- Python for Series 60: On more and more phones.
- wxPython: The GUI toolkit will finally enter the spotlight (where it belongs).
- Developers increasingly prefer web-based applications over desktop (read: Vista) applications
- Amazon Web Services: 'Power to the people'. Many popular websites/web-applications will be based on Amazon Web Services.

Posts: 55
Nickname: lazydaze
Registered: Feb, 2006

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 2:39 AM

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Opps.. a language called Guava already exists.. I wasn't referring to that one.

Biagio Cosenza

Posts: 3
Nickname: biacos
Registered: Nov, 2005

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 6:14 AM

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I notice that few people realize what's happening in hardware market.
Moore Laws about single processor hardware are fallen (who believed in it?).
The next years hardware will be multi-core and multi-processor, but nowadays the software (for the most part) is serial.

My opinion is that the next big thing in software development will be >> serious << parallel software development.

However few people realize this now... things will change early.

Leandro Oliveira

Posts: 21
Nickname: lao
Registered: Aug, 2003

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 10:24 AM

Reply

> However few people realize this now... things will change
> early.

AFAIK, everybody is talking about the change to parallel software development. But what if it doesn't happen? If it's so difficult so that developers can't deliver the promised gains? When everybody repeats the same mantra I usually suspect something is very wrong.

Wilfred Springer

Posts: 176
Nickname: springerw
Registered: Sep, 2006

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 12:40 PM

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I do - to some extent - expect "The Return of the Jini". Jini is gaining traction again. Spring basically has paved the way for an alternative JEE stack.

Before Spring, it was impossible to imagine an alternative JEE stack conquering the enterprise world. Spring has not only built the momentum to (partly) replace the stack, it has also provided proof that there are in fact alternatives that are equally good or even better than the full-blown JEE stack.

We have already seen some vendors successfully push their proprietary middleware solutions leveraging Spring's momentum. I suspect that the Jini community will also be able to ride the same wave. The only thing that could get in the way is the not-invented-here syndrom from which a lot of Jini folks seem to suffer.

Hopefully, in the end, we will have something based on Jini infrastructure, OSGi for life cycle management and Spring shielding developers from implementation details. I can easily see this combination not only replacing the JEE stack, but also JBI/ESB solutions.

robert young

Posts: 361
Nickname: funbunny
Registered: Sep, 2003

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Dec 31, 2006 2:13 PM

Reply

> I notice that few people realize what's happening in
> hardware market.
> Moore Laws about single processor hardware are fallen (who
> believed in it?).
> The next years hardware will be multi-core and
> multi-processor, but nowadays the software (for the most
> part) is serial.
>
> My opinion is that the next big thing in software
> development will be >> serious << parallel software
> development.
>
> However few people realize this now... things will change
> early.

Which observation brings in my High Horse, which I will now proceed to ride. Database servers are multi-threaded to begin with, and "ought" to be the MC of MVC. There are some "frameworks" already that build from this idea.

So, the easy and best way to deal with the issue is to leave just the V in java/ruby/python/etc. and do the data thing in the database. Generate the V code from the catalog.

I've spent the last couple of long weekends re-reading Gray and Reuter and Weikum and Vossen. About a decade apart, but both books agree that letting applications control concurrency is a Bad Idea. Even in distributed environments. Come over to the Dark Side. Leave your hoary code behind.

Arthuro Toscano

Posts: 11
Nickname: arthuroz
Registered: Oct, 2006

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Jan 1, 2007 12:02 AM

Reply

Not a prediction but a wishlist: Ruby, Python and PHP should use a common runtime. This is a must because the next generation of microprocessors will be multicore with > 4 cores on a dices. Only Java or .NET will be able to deliver performant implementations. IBM and Intel are working on a JVM. Why? Because of multicore-technology. Intel produces the fastest native compilers for x86 and will deliver the fastest JVM's too.

Python, PHP and Ruby have no chance to compete with their own runtimes. And why does Ruby need another incompatible runtime? Does it make any sense? There isn't enough MONEY and manpower in LAMP-land to deliver high-performance runtimes. Hopefully Python 3000 will be the first next-generation-language using the JVM instead of its own C-based runtime.

C'mon Guido! You are working for Google and most of Google runs on Java (TM).

Joao Pedrosa

Posts: 114
Nickname: dewd
Registered: Dec, 2005

Re: Where is Software Development Heading in 2007?

Posted: Jan 1, 2007 10:26 AM

Reply

Arthuro, see this user's benchmark of Ruby 2.0's VM:
http://www.rubychan.de/share/yarv_speedups.html

I mean, the Ruby VM will be plenty fast and with it users will be able to power better programs. After Ruby gets its VM, hopefully with native thread support, things could improve for use of multicore processors as well. Intel could even donate their advancements to Ruby, or maybe AMD or IBM. Just create a native library or something, and if it turns out to be good, folks will use it and it might end up becoming a core library or part of the language.

On another note, I would like to call the attention of folks to the nice "Yahoo User Interface JavaScript library", or just YUI. I think YUI is original and nice enough to be used by many "Web 2.0" projects, even though it took some time for me to find it and decide to use it. They even have a blog:
http://yuiblog.com/
And some cool extensions:
http://www.jackslocum.com/blog/index.php

Just wanted to share this with those folks who care about such things. :-) I think the YUI guys are having a lot of fun with it, which is always a good thing to have.

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