I abused Gartner over the 20 year prediction crap they were pushing awhile back - just today, I was sent a link to this post by Bob Lewis (Alan sent me the link):

Perception, of course, is reality, so you need to pay attention to this, especially since Gartner sells the perception to the executives with whom you work, also sells its solution, and, unlike you, has a paid sales force and PR machine. According to the article (and to be fair, it's possible Gartner's actual findings had fewer logical holes than the article that presented them) what's going to happen is:

New technologies, that deliver pre-packaged workflows to businesses, and let businesspeople reconnect the process flows by manipulating visual tools and pushing a button (Ta-Da!!!) will fundamentally change the responsibilities of IT departments.

Since today most IT organizations spend the bulk of their budgets on operations and applications, something fundamental needs to change. Mix in outsourcing and the end of IT is at hand.

Oh, and the career solution for technical professionals? Get an MBA.

Bob goes on to deconstruct this nonsense. I know Gartner has a great reputation, and that people pay real money to hear them blather. What you should ask yourself is why? Do they predict, or do they just engage in a jolly game of making crap up? I might as well ask my daughter what IT will look like in 20 years - at least I'll get an honest "how would I know" answer out of her.