Microsoft has a lock on the corporate side, and likely will for awhile yet. However, in the consumer space - both PC's and smaller devices - they are getting creamed by Apple. This doesn't surprise me; I've thought for a long while that MS would eventually get big, dumb, and stupid (like IBM did back in the 80's) and stumble. Vista was just the harbinger of all that:
Microsoft had promised a real Windows make-over with Vista and it never delivered one. For all OS X's excellence, it should be remembered that OS X is a good deal younger than Vista, with the Mach microkernel sitting under BSD and a coherent interface layer sitting above it. Windows has archaelogical layers of software buried under the covers, because Microsoft chose to provide a great deal of backward compatibility.
Apple was able to move forward because they had far less of a base to hold them back. MS got conservative, precisely because of the large installed base, and the fear they have about anything that might upset that base. This works fine, when the goal is to hold on to what you have. It works far less well when the goal is to get into new markets.
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