Peter Fisk identifies the crux of Microsoft's problem:

Their problem isn’t a lack of talent, it is a lack of direction - and no amount of hiring is going to fix it.

I always figured that MS would be ok, so long as Gates was having fun. Whenever that ended, and he moved on to something else - the company was going to start drifting. It looks like I wasn't wrong. This doesn't imply that MS is "doomed", or anything - but I think they are going to end up sliding through the same tunnel of malaise that IBM went through during the 80's and early 90's.

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