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Nothing is inevitable

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James Robertson

Posts: 29924
Nickname: jarober61
Registered: Jun, 2003

David Buck, Smalltalker at large
Nothing is inevitable Posted: Apr 7, 2006 11:35 AM
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This post originated from an RSS feed registered with Agile Buzz by James Robertson.
Original Post: Nothing is inevitable
Feed Title: Cincom Smalltalk Blog - Smalltalk with Rants
Feed URL: http://www.cincomsmalltalk.com/rssBlog/rssBlogView.xml
Feed Description: James Robertson comments on Cincom Smalltalk, the Smalltalk development community, and IT trends and issues in general.
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This piece in InformationWeek gave me pause. It's not that I have any fear of globalization, or any doubts about it happening; it's clearly happening. If my reading of history has taught me anything though, it's that nothing is inevitable. Consider Preston's summary:

Globalization has officially arrived. Even that bastion of progressive thought leadership, The New York Times, in the person of columnist Thomas Friedman, now realizes that the "flat" business world in which we live won't be structured country by country. We can disagree on whether that trend ultimately serves our long-term economic interests, but there's no disagreeing on whether it will happen. It's here, to stay.

Read anything written by a late 19th/early century person - particularly a European - and you'll see the same sort of triumphalism. The people of that age were witnessing a historic binding together of the economies of Europe. Regulations were minimal, cross border movement and trade was large (and growing). Nothing, people thought, could stop any of that - I'd recommend "Europe's Last Summer" in order to get a sense of that.

Then came the wreckage of the first world war, followed by the rest of the 20th century. Cross-border trade in Europe didn't approach pre-WWI levels for decades. Which takes me back to the supposed inevitability of growing globalization and seamless, cross border trade and movement. The last time people in the West had the thought that "nothing could stop this", they were in for a very, very rude awakening.

Read: Nothing is inevitable

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