There hasn't been a lot of reporting on New Orleans of late, but a post by Dave Winer got me thinking about the city - it's going to come back, but it won't ever be what it was. Have a look at the history of Galveston, TX, before and after the 1900 storm.

Before the storm, Galveston was an up and coming commercial center, with lots of the nascent oil business going there. Afterwards, that all went to Houston. I expect a similar thing to happen to New Orleans, including the port itself - lots of business that went elsewhere (and found that it could get by elsewhere) simply won't come back. Like Galveston in 1900, the risks will look too high, and - if a full rebuild is necessary - business owners will look to mitigate their risks.

Galveston didn't disappear, of course, and neither will New Orleans. However, Galveston is no longer a commercial center - it's a tourist location. New Orleans is likely looking at the same fate.