Naked Conversations has some weird ideas:

"Meanwhile, Redmond is proud but not foolish. The writing is on the wall that almost all software will be open and free."

Oh? Software developers, like everyone else, needs to pay for living space, food (etc). The dirty secret about free software is that most people won't pay for maintenance and support - heck, that fact is what doomed the tool market's standard developer license model - it only works if you have lots of new sales each year, because there's steady attrition in the maintenance contracts. Start out by offering your software for free, and you only go broke faster.

The true beauty of watching the current tools space is seeing the people who called MS "evil" for giving IE away hailing IBM as a visionary for making Eclipse free. That sound you hear is all the Java tool vendors dying.