Scoble points to this announcement about MS's new management structure - the long and short of it is, Ballmer and his crew are now on top. Why do I call that retrenchment? Because Ballmer is a sales guy, not a marketing guy, or a technical visionary. Under the Ballmer crew, tweaks will be made to sales models, and compensation plans, and bundling options - but technology and "innovation" will definitely take a backseat. Microsoft has now officially entered the beginning of the same downramp that IBM entered in the 80's. They'll likely end up in the same place that IBM is now in - profitable and important, but no longer dominant or industry leading.

The question is, how bad will the pain get between now and then?