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by James Robertson.
Original Post: Thought experiments
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See that mountain in the background that looks so small? Well if the economy suffers a really bad shock, hedge fund collapse, $70 a barrel, or whatever it is, then suddenly the mountain comes to the fore, and the perspective shifts. Could another firm buy Google outright? Lets say the bottom falls out of the advertising market, taking Goog revenues down to $3bn a year (currently doing 1.25 a quarter). Combine that with a major fall out on share price- say take P/E to a more realistic, yet still outrageous, 15. Who could afford $45bn?
Why not buy all the cool technology and brand and fire those expensive PHDs with their 20% own time who don't seem to be generating any cash yet? Why am i thinking about Google in this way? Partly because i have a post on the way about IBM's decision to give Google enterprise props. I am not a financial analyst, as you can doubtless tell from the proceeding commentary. But i just wanted to check myself and think whether Google is buyable/rideable.
Hmm - Which companies have piles of cash available that might be burning holes in their pockets under those circumstances?