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by Daniel Berger.
Original Post: Baseball and Payrolls
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After having a little debate with pudge I decided to do some, you know, actual research into the belief that baseball teams with the highest payrolls are more likely to make it to the playoffs and the World Series.
You can find the payrolls here and the current standings here. You can also find the playoff and series histories here.
The verdict: the stats back up my position. More or less. The upshot is that, while a high payroll helps, it's no guarantee. Teams with lower payrolls (e.g. Detroit Tigers this year) can still end up with very good teams. But, in all this, one fact has become clear to me. The team with the highest payroll, the New York Yankees, have clearly been buying their way into the playoffs and the Series, with a payroll over 50% higher than the second highest (Boston Red Sox) this year.
Since the '94 strike season, the Yankees have been to the playoffs every year, have been to the World Series six times and have won four of them.
Are we having fun yet?
Part of the problem has to do with the addition of several new teams in the last 15 years and the split of each league into three divisions, instead of just two. This reduced the overall talent pool league-wide, meaning that the star players are that much more valuable. This is especially true for pitchers. It short, it makes it easier to get to the playoffs in the first place, since you're facing fewer teams in your division.
Look, I realize a huge payroll is no guarantee and a smart front office can make all the difference, but if you look at the Series' history, the vast majority of the teams that played were in the top half of the payroll scale:
2005: Chicago White Sox (#4) vs Houston (#8) 2004: Boston Red Sox (#2) vs St. Louis (#11) 2003: Florida Marlins (#20) vs New York Yankees (#1) 2002: Anaheim Angels (#15) vs San Francisco Giants (#9) 2001: Arizona Diamondbacks (#8) vs New York Yankees (#1)
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