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I have no inside info in the whole vPod/vTunes issue - I do not believe the Google Cache pages, and personally I would not put it past Apple's smart PR to intentionally generate confusion in the blogosphere, for whatever reason.
But I do think that this betting pool is wrong, here is why.
It could be vTunes. It could be vPod (though there is an additional usability fire to jump over for the Apple's design team)
I just don't think it can be just a vPod. And stop the drooling ;)
Here is why. In the plain-video devices market vPod by itself seems like a sitting duck. vPod is not an iPod with video, it is a different device altogether. The regular iPods, even the bulky ones, are too small to watch video on. So think of it as just that, Apple putting out an (almost) entirely new device. Who is their competition? Companies like Archos, who were there very early on, have market penetration and can play WM-protected content. Ok, let's assume Apple can make a nicer device (although not all or their handyworks have been exactly beautiful of late). We also have PSP, which supports video and games. Apple cannot be ready to fight in the game market by any stretch of imagination. True, the PSP video is somewhat sucky (I am talking about format support), but they have a far smaller gap to good vid+game player than Apple. Many business gurus claim that you can only be #1 or #2 player in the market, otherwise it's not worth entering. So what could possibly be the selling point for this FrankenPod?
I think there is only one answer: vTunes. The video-on-demand market is pretty new and there is no established brand there (some reasons mentioned below). Ever heard of MovieLink or CinemaNow? These guys have been around for 3 years or so, but the rate of adoption has been slow. Part of it is, IMO, intentional in case of Movielink, which is run by a conglomerate of movie studios. I think they view it as an experiment. They are old behemoths, and they tread carefully. But the door is left open for a strong brand to come and grab the market. It does not hurt that Apple's relationship to the movie business has always been good. His Steveness happens to be the CEO of Pixar. Seemingly all the movie trailers are hosted on Apple using QuickTime. The mutual like goes even deeper: it's a personality match. Jobs once said about Bill Gates that he has no style. Movie folk definitely think of themselves as having style. BTW, one indicator of that is disproportionate presentation of Macs in TV/movies. Just look out for it.
Another recent step that brings Apple closer to vTunes is the podcasting support. They are now dealing with larger files, some of which are already video. They are also hosting some for the popular podcasts. And then there is H.264.
It's got to be vTunes. vPod... Personally I think Apple needs some time to get it right. It's a complement to vTunes, so it's got to be on the way. I just don't think they are ready.
The stage is set, the pieces are moving.
Bill will be very mad...
PS. Slow uptake of the video-on-demand. It's pretty simple: bandwidth/quality tradeoffs and halfhearted attitude of the movie studios. Apple is trying to address this with a better compression standard (H.264). With services like FOIS starting to emerge the bandwidth issue is going to get much smaller. There might still be some inconvenience waiting for downloads, but it's faster than going to a video store!
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