If you read Barnett's weblog, you know one of his reoccurring themes is the sudden rise of China and India (to a lesser extent) as global economic forces to rival the US. Most of the stories I've read about the IBM-Lenovo deal focus on just the numbers and org-chart changes, along with bemoaning the good ol' days.
The NY Times has an article with a couple of paragraphs on the more economic "big picture" things Barnett mentions in his talk about China:
American companies, in one industry after another, are scrambling to take advantage of the vast potential of the Chinese market. Chinese companies like Lenovo, meanwhile, are increasingly seeking to tap into overseas markets, management expertise and technological skills.
"This is an encouraging sign of the increasingly sophisticated trans-Pacific ties between the United States and China," said Timothy F. Bresnahan, an economist at Stanford University. "Seeing the Chinese seeking these kinds of economic links can only be a good thing."
The complex transaction is meant to serve as a bridge between very different companies from different cultures, by seeking to ensure that I.B.M. has a stake in the Chinese company's success. Whether in the United States, in China or anywhere else in the world, such a stake would be in I.B.M.'s self-interest; a messy exit from the personal computer industry could rankle corporate customers, hurting I.B.M.'s other businesses, and tarnish its stellar brand name.
My dad's an IBM refuge. His unit was sold off to Multek in the late 80's (I think), where he worked until he got a good job at Polycom, where he seems to be doing very well. I mention that because I think IBM, in the collective techie-mind, is synonymous with the pattern of selling off units, and the people in them, to other companies. The companies then, tend, to be very concerned with cutting costs, like people. That is, if IBM sells off your unit, time to look for a new job. Hell, it's even mentioned in the part of our cannon, Microserfs.
So, when I heard about the PC unit being sold off, my first thought was, "who's next?" The server unit? Software? From what I read, it seems like the money for IBM is in consulting: coming up with what IT to buy, and then integrating it all together for customers. If that's true, then they could sell off all of the "manufacturing" (servers, software, etc.) units, and just do consulting. It's kind of like a Just In Time model for IT companies.
Here's the analogy. Dell doesn't manufacture all of the components in their final product, an assembled computer. Instead, their JIT supply chain delegates that to other companies. IBM's consulting folks "final product" is a running, integrated IT system, "assembled" from the components of software, servers, PC's, and anything those connect to and use. Each of those "components," then, could be moved to a JIT model where IBM doesn't actually "manufacture" them, but acquires them from outside, but closely affiliated companies.
I don't think any of that would happen anytime soon, but it's an interesting thought. As always in the computer-biz, if you're not a rock-star consultant (or group of them like IBM positions itself as), good luck when it comes to job security.
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