The latest java.net poll shows that expectations for the technology / software engineering economy in 2010 vary greatly. However, a majority expect the outlook to be improved as 2010 proceeds.
A total of 266 votes were cast in the non-scientific survey. The exact question and results were:
What's your outlook for the technology / software engineering economy in 2010?
22% (58 votes) - 2009 was great for me; 2010 will be great too
11% (29 votes) - We've turned the corner, work should become plentiful
33% (87 votes) - I expect a slow recovery in 2010
12% (31 votes) - 2010 won't be any better than 2009
11% (29 votes) - The downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back
12% (32 votes) - I don't know;other
Of course, one thing that makes it difficult to assess a poll like this is the fact that the people who voted live in many different countries, and the economic outlook in some countries is far better than it is in other countries. So, given a person who votes "2009 was great for me; 2010 will be great too" and another person who votes "the downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back" -- both people may be accurately predicting what will happen in their own country.
It's the nature of global downturns that the shock affects and pulls down everyone at the moment of crisis. But, since the economies of different countries are so different, and since the policies their governments enact in response to the crisis vary greatly, some countries return to a more normal level of economic vibrancy sooner than others. Then, there are potentially other countries that may never return to their prior level of economic growth and vitality, because the downturn and response fundamentally changes the structure of that nation's economy (the United States may be in this category).
Still, setting all of that aside, and looking at the poll from a global perspective -- a pretty high percent of voters (22%) did not find 2009 to be a bad year, or even a merely good year. For them, 2009 was great, and they expect their own personally great economy to continue in 2010.
The highest number of votes (33%) went to "I expect a slow recovery in 2010." This is in line with the median forecast by most economists in the United States, Western Europe, and many other of the what used to be called "First World" nations. Still, in the United States, for example, there are a quite a lot of economists who expect a "W" shaped recession, where we are now on the first upward leg, but by 2011 we'll be sliding downward again. I don't see many economists predicting this scenario for countries like China, India, Brazil, and other economies that were enjoying quite fast growth before the 2008 crisis.
Anyway, I very much hope that these 33% of voters and the 11% who voted "we've turned the corner, work should become plentiful" are correct, at least for most of the world. A good economy in one part of the world often helps pull the rest of the world out of their slump.
Meanwhile, it's very easy for me to see why 12% selected "2010 won't be any better than 2009" and 11% selected "the downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back."
One group of voters is certain to be correct -- those who said: "I don't know." None of us do, really. Even the most respected, highly paid economists in government, in finance, and everywhere else, were unable to form a consensus that would have prevented the 2008 crisis -- though a great many warned pretty precisely, and years in advance, that what happened would happen...
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