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Poll: Majority Expect Improved Technology / Software Engineering Economy in 2010

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Poll: Majority Expect Improved Technology / Software Engineering Economy in 2010 Posted: Jan 8, 2010 1:10 PM
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Original Post: Poll: Majority Expect Improved Technology / Software Engineering Economy in 2010
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The latest java.net poll shows that expectations for the technology / software engineering economy in 2010 vary greatly. However, a majority expect the outlook to be improved as 2010 proceeds.

A total of 266 votes were cast in the non-scientific survey. The exact question and results were:

What's your outlook for the technology / software engineering economy in 2010?

  • 22% (58 votes) - 2009 was great for me; 2010 will be great too
  • 11% (29 votes) - We've turned the corner, work should become plentiful
  • 33% (87 votes) - I expect a slow recovery in 2010
  • 12% (31 votes) - 2010 won't be any better than 2009
  • 11% (29 votes) - The downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back
  • 12% (32 votes) - I don't know;other

Of course, one thing that makes it difficult to assess a poll like this is the fact that the people who voted live in many different countries, and the economic outlook in some countries is far better than it is in other countries. So, given a person who votes "2009 was great for me; 2010 will be great too" and another person who votes "the downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back" -- both people may be accurately predicting what will happen in their own country.

It's the nature of global downturns that the shock affects and pulls down everyone at the moment of crisis. But, since the economies of different countries are so different, and since the policies their governments enact in response to the crisis vary greatly, some countries return to a more normal level of economic vibrancy sooner than others. Then, there are potentially other countries that may never return to their prior level of economic growth and vitality, because the downturn and response fundamentally changes the structure of that nation's economy (the United States may be in this category).

Still, setting all of that aside, and looking at the poll from a global perspective -- a pretty high percent of voters (22%) did not find 2009 to be a bad year, or even a merely good year. For them, 2009 was great, and they expect their own personally great economy to continue in 2010.

The highest number of votes (33%) went to "I expect a slow recovery in 2010." This is in line with the median forecast by most economists in the United States, Western Europe, and many other of the what used to be called "First World" nations. Still, in the United States, for example, there are a quite a lot of economists who expect a "W" shaped recession, where we are now on the first upward leg, but by 2011 we'll be sliding downward again. I don't see many economists predicting this scenario for countries like China, India, Brazil, and other economies that were enjoying quite fast growth before the 2008 crisis.

Anyway, I very much hope that these 33% of voters and the 11% who voted "we've turned the corner, work should become plentiful" are correct, at least for most of the world. A good economy in one part of the world often helps pull the rest of the world out of their slump.

Meanwhile, it's very easy for me to see why 12% selected "2010 won't be any better than 2009" and 11% selected "the downturn will worsen, lost jobs aren't coming back."

One group of voters is certain to be correct -- those who said: "I don't know." None of us do, really. Even the most respected, highly paid economists in government, in finance, and everywhere else, were unable to form a consensus that would have prevented the 2008 crisis -- though a great many warned pretty precisely, and years in advance, that what happened would happen...

New poll: Java EE 6

Our new poll asks Which Java EE 6 enhancement is most significant? Voting will be open for the next week.


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Clarification: all developers should be lazy :-). Java EE (6) is an abstraction of existing products (Hibernate, TopLink, Glassfish, JBoss, Geronimo, Tomcat+, ...) and API-implementations. So if you develop Java EE 6 applications, you can start with the spec and dig into the implementation details as needed. If you are using e.g. Glassfish application server, EclipseLink (JPA), Equinox or Felix(OSGi), RedHat Weld (CDI) ... are working for you - but you don't have usually to care about the details. ...

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Given that Maven is much more complex than Ant, and it dinamically resolves dependencies, people are right to be concerned with having deterministic builds. But the vast majority of problems are solved by just three good practices: 1. version everything, including all Maven plugins; 2. run once in a while mvn dependency:go-offline, that will download all the required stuff; 3. routinely use mvn -o (offline mode)...

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Maven seems to be one of those topics that brings out passion in many developers. Apparently, some developers love it, and find it a highly valuable and time-saving tool, whereas others hate it with a passion. (Of course there are still others who just want to get on with the job, but those ones usually keep quiet on the blogosphere). Every once in a while someone comes out with a blog entry explaining in more or less detail what they dislike so much about Maven. Sometimes these articles contain constructive criticism that allows Maven to evolve in the right direction. That's great. Sometimes they contain inaccuracies or misunderstandings about how Maven works. Sometimes they are just downright wrong. But they nevertheless represent a perception of Maven in parts of the Java community. So in this series of articles, I want to take a look at some of the common myths and ideas that circulate about Maven, and see how they stand up to the light of scientific examination...

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Our current Spotlight is Geertjan Wielenga's post 2010: The Year of Documented Reference Material for the NetBeans Platform: "Towards the end of 2008, I predicted that 2009 would be The Year of Documented Business Scenarios for the NetBeans Platform. I think, looking back at the past year, that, in particular via How to Create a Swing CRUD Application on NetBeans Platform 6.8, the year turned out as I had hoped. In addition to that, The Definitive Guide to NetBeans Platform was released during the past year as well, together with a massively updated NetBeans Platform screenshots page, which all relate closely to business scenarios for the NetBeans Platform. In the case of the book, the business scenarios were enabled, in the case of the screenshots page, the business scenarios were proved..."


Our new java.net Poll asks Which Java EE 6 enhancement is most significant? Voting will run through next Thursday or Friday (depending on where you live).


We've just published a new java.net Feature Article, Maven Repository Managers for the Enterprise/a>, by John Smart. We're also featuring Jeff Friesen's Reading Newsfeeds in JavaFX with FeedRead, in which Jeff demonstrates how to apply JavaFX's RSS and Atom newsfeed capabilities to create a snazzy little JavaFX app that can run stand-alone or in a browser.


The latest Java Mobility Podcast is Java Mobile Podcast 92: MIDP 3.0 in Depth: Tutorials and Demonstrations: Excerpts from the JavaOne 2009 MIDP 3.0 In Depth: Tutorials and Demonstrations session with Roger Riggs, Lakshmi Dontamsetti and Stan Kao.


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Archives and Subscriptions: This blog is delivered weekdays as the Java Today RSS feed. Also, once this page is no longer featured as the front page of java.net it will be archived along with other past issues in the java.net Archive.

-- Kevin Farnham
O'Reilly Media

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