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If Java could a) startup quickly, and b) download and install as well as Flash, well, the world would be a very different place.

The experience in both startup and JRE browser install is still quite painful. Going to Iris and having to click through 3 "Do you trusst this applet" dialogs, only to get a ClassDefNotFound error says it all.

Maybe Sun has finally listened and realized that you CAN just download a microkernel and have it pull in what it needs to enhance perceived speed:

One concern about JavaFX on the desktop is the deployment story. The JRE is a huge download for a user that doesn't already have it installed and the current user experience for on-demand installation from the browser is not very good. Brewin fleshed out remarks made during the keynote to the effect that Java 6 Update 2 will introduce a new deployment model for the JRE where the initial download is very small and additional JRE components are lazily downloaded only as needed. He said that the concept is very similar to the Java Kernel project proposed for Java 7. Asked if a similar deployment scenario might be implemented for Java ME, he said it was certainly possible and that naturally this would be driven by the Java Community Process.

I hope so. Java has some serious advantages, and maybe there is still a hope?